This Morning's Data

Two data releases this morning for market participants to obsess on: jobless claims and durable goods.  Let's look at the jobless numbers first. You'll be reading that jobless claims dropped a bit, signalling some minor good news.  I don't want to be the Grinch in all this, but we want to bear in mind that these are pre-Christmas numbers.  Employers are usually loathe to lay folks off right before the holidays, so we won't get a real read on whether the employment situation is stabilizing or improving til after the first of the year.  Until then, just chill on these stats; they're just cable channel time filler.

Durable goods rose .2%, but that was less than the .4% expected by economists (BTW: durable goods are things that are too big to fit in your SUV and designed to last longer than a fashion season. Think aircraft, trucks, refrigerators...)

Bottom line on all this is that we are in a period where the data releases really mean very little.  If you want to take a dogmatic, pre-convinced position, you can spin them either negative or positive.  The fact remains, in my opinion, that the jury is still out on whether we see a recovery next year, or a double dip. 

Thus, for our conservative (and I don't mean politicallly--not that there's anything wrong with that!) Smart Income clients we remain broadly and caitiously positioned, with a focus on acheiving high current income.   Interest rates have begun to creep up and we have tried to nimbly move some of our bond positions to keep things stable.

On the more aggressive end, Active Trading accounts are still largely fully invested, with regular ongoing repositioning to hopefully keep on the right side of the market trend.  I expect this rally to continue through year end, as folks who have been on the sidelines finally capitulate and join the 'party.'  As always, though, I am ready to pull the trigger and head for the hills if things take a turn for the worse.  But that seems increasingly less likely over the very near term.